PIE × Equity

Methodology & caveats

Window: PIE coverage spans Apr 5 – May 26, 2026 (8 weeks, 36 trading bars). Equity returns and alpha are computed strictly inside this window.

How to read the charts

• Alpha scatter — x: PIE mentions (preds + briefs), y: alpha vs sector benchmark (ITA for primes/drones/intl, SOXX for chip-supply). Dashed line at y=0 is the benchmark; above = outperforming, below = underperforming.
• Doctrine docs — shown as a context column in the table (not a chart axis): the count of doctrine-corpus documents mentioning the ticker. A level reading on how embedded a name is in defense doctrine, independent of this window's PIE coverage.

What this is not

• Not investment advice, not a backtest, not a recommendation. Coverage is not a signal of upside or downside.
• Not entity-resolved. PIE mentions are surface keyword tagging (e.g. “Lockheed” in a flag body counts as a mention of LMT). False positives and category confusion exist.
• No per-flag sentiment label. A bullish mention and a bearish mention count the same.
• Doctrine corpus has no per-doc timestamps in the current chunker. Doctrine docs is a level reading on corpus depth, not a momentum signal.
• Unadjusted closes from Yahoo Finance public chart endpoint — no dividend / split adjustment beyond what Yahoo provides.

Headline observations (descriptive only)

• Doctrine-heavy defense primes (LMT, NOC, BA, RTX) traded in line with or modestly under ITA over the window — doctrine corpus depth did not translate to PIE-window outperformance.
• The chip-supply cluster (INTC, STM, ON, QCOM) shows the biggest positive alpha vs SOXX during the window, but this is a hypothesis worth investigating, not a finding. n of active days per chip ticker is small (often < 15) and PIE coverage of chip-supply names is itself sparse.
• Same-day and 5-day-forward correlations between PIE mentions and returns are near-zero in absolute terms (|r| < 0.3 for nearly all rows). No leading or lagging relationship is supported by this window.

Full caveats and the source-of-truth numbers live in REPORT.md. The packager (pipeline/market_lens_packager.py) imports its window and palette from the research module so the page and report cannot drift apart on the basics.